Launch Edition — scenario math
Pick one pack retail price and shared print rules, then compare how outcomes change if actual pack sales (and custom/shipping) land low, on-target, or strong. Pack manufacturing cost moves with print volume via the tier ladder below—not three separate guesses at price.
How to read this page
- Not a promise of profit — internal planning only.
- Columns = sales/results — mainly different packs sold (and custom slots / shipping you attach to that story).
- Print units = ⌈packs sold × (1 + spoilage)⌉; that count picks the COGS per pack tier (quote ladder).
- Tiers are placeholders—edit the
$cogs_volume_tiersarray in this file (and the JSON updates for JS automatically).
Scenario stories
Low sales
Fewer packs move; customization is light; shipping and fixed costs hurt more per pack sold.
Base case
Moderate turnout (FSL + invites); solid mix of packs and paid custom slots.
Strong sales
Strong pack demand; more custom work; shipping spread across more orders; print tier drops $/pack.
Shared assumptions (one price + print rules)
Volume → pack COGS (illustrative tiers)
Each column’s packs sold flows through here to set implied $/pack before variable COGS is totaled.
| Print units (ordered) ≤ | Pack COGS each ($) |
|---|---|
| ≤ 90 | $16.50 |
| ≤ 260 | $8.25 |
| Above prior cutoff (catch-all) | $5.10 |
Per-scenario inputs (mostly sales & attach)
| Input | Low sales | Base | Strong sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packs sold (Launch) | |||
| Customization slots sold | |||
| Customization price each ($) | |||
| Customization cost (artist/time) each ($) | |||
| Shipping total for Launch ($) |
Outputs (computed)
| Line | Low sales | Base | Strong sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack revenue (packs × shared retail price) | $1,210.00 | $4,840.00 | $11,440.00 |
| Print units (⌈packs × (1 + spoilage)⌉) | 58 | 231 | 546 |
| Implied pack COGS each (tier) | $16.50 | $8.25 | $5.10 |
| Pack variable COGS (print units × implied $/pack) | $957.00 | $1,905.75 | $2,784.60 |
| Customization revenue | $1,560.00 | $5,920.00 | $9,625.00 |
| Customization variable cost | $1,080.00 | $3,520.00 | $4,840.00 |
| Shipping (lump) | $520.00 | $980.00 | $1,650.00 |
| Payment processing | $83.10 | $322.80 | $631.95 |
| Total revenue | $2,770.00 | $10,760.00 | $21,065.00 |
| Total variable costs | $2,640.10 | $6,728.55 | $9,906.55 |
| Contribution (revenue − variable) | $129.90 | $4,031.45 | $11,158.45 |
| Minus One-time fixed (art direction, templates, legal review, proofs) | $2,800.00 | $2,800.00 | $2,800.00 |
| Illustrative net after fixed | $-2,670.10 | $1,231.45 | $8,358.45 |
Levers
- Actual pack sales — main driver of pack revenue and which print tier you land in.
- Chosen retail price — set once; scenarios show margin if demand is soft vs strong.
- Customization attach — slots and artist cost still move contribution column-by-column.
- Tier ladder — when quotes change, update tiers so implied COGS tracks your printer’s MOQ breaks.
Calculations run in your browser. Does not include tax, chargebacks, or pro rev-share pools.